The earthquake on May 12 in Sichuan province in western China will have repercussions beyond China than Beijing. Sichuan Province is the key to China’s hydropower plans for its renewable energy goals, and is also the center of world-wide wind turbine equipment. Both were badly damaged.
This infrastructure will take months or years to repair, but for now the Chinese media have reported that "the earthquake in dollar terms is minimal, and it seems that unilaterally it is very important to accelerate economic growth in China." I beg to differ.
This earthquake destroyed dams and roads, but at the same time it punched holes in the myth that ever-expanding China can accommodate an infinite number of companies willing to open objects there. We hid behind the wall of outsourcing dependence to solve our internal pollution problems and economic problems, and that the great wall is about to collapse.
Hydroelectric crutch: the earthquake zone zone produced 62 percent of total electricity production in Sichuan Province due to hydroelectric dams, of which 396 dams were considered badly damaged, and many of the power plants on river systems were damaged, and several according to the Minister of Water Resources, Chen La, seismic the safety of these dams is a concern, and many of them are expected to be in need of repair and strengthening. ”
Even before the earthquake, Beijing recognized that many of the country's 87,000 dams were seriously flawed. “Some 37,000 dams across the country are in a dangerous condition,” Deputy Minister of Water Resources Jiao Yong said earlier this year, noting that many of them were built several decades ago.
Two weeks after the earthquake, the Ministry of Water Resources acknowledged that 69 reservoirs and dams are on the verge of collapse, and nearly 3,000 from China suffered damage.
If always the secret central government publishes this type of information, I can only conclude that reliable authority from this region is no longer guaranteed. This single set of facts revolving around hydropower production in western China is a link in the chain that extends from China right to your backyard, and this link has broken.
Do not count your eggs with renewable energy before they hatch: there are more dams in China than in any other country - about half of the whole world. And the 11th five-year plan places hopes on the rapid and massive development of every meter of flowing water in the rivers of Yunnan, Sichuan and Gansu provinces in the west in order to satisfy the insatiable demand for electricity for factories and houses. Now the Chinese government will have to revise its aggressive dam development program.
If hydroelectric projects are utilized, there will be a permanent permanent shortage of electricity in the country. Hydropower consumption in China was about 7% of their total primary energy consumed in 2007.
A premature earthquake, the central government thought: "Sichuan has the largest reserves of the country's hydropower resources, estimated at more than 110 gigawatts." Yunnan has a number of hydropower plants under construction in the lower and middle reaches of the Lanchang River with 11 GW and plans dozens more projects from now to 2016. Rich hydropower resources in Gansu can provide electricity for the neighboring Qinghai, Shanxi, Sichuan and Ningxia provinces, and their future potential is great. & # 39;
Aldeady no.
The Chinese Electric Council estimates that less than 20 percent of the country's hydropower resources are used. According to the government’s plan before the earthquake, the installed capacity of the hydropower plants was to reach 125 GW in 2010, which is 28 percent of the total installed capacity; in 2015, it could reach 150 GW, and by 2020, the target would be 300 GW. These plans are unlikely to go ahead as planned. This will leave China far behind its goals of generating electricity and far from the opportunities necessary to attract manufacturing enterprises to this part of the country.
Slow decline: the Go West campaign in China aims to lure college graduates and businesses to the western regions of the country, thereby stimulating the economy in the less rich interior of China.
The lure, most often used by the central government, is in the form of large economic and technological development zones, special economic zones and urban industrial zones that provide tax-free status, as well as preferential transportation and wage agreements. It's great when there is a continuous power source, but now in the western region it is nothing but confidence. The state power grid of China announced that the Sichuan power grid operates at 76% of the level before the earthquake. Notice how they conveniently leave the surrounding provinces, which also suffered damage.
A recent article in China Daily, “China expects power shortages amid growing demand,” quotes the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, saying that “Guangdong Province will be less than 5.5GW, Guizhou 1GW and Yunnan 1.5 GW.” However, they abandoned the shortages in Sichuan, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shanxi to obtain a reliable amount. This will be the fifth executive year of power shortages across the country. Now consider the following: the last four years have been short, and the entire hydropower industry has worked.
This year, the capacity is likely to be 10 GW, so watch the power ratings - “normal shortage”, “severe shortage” and “energy crisis” - to see how your favorite city or industrial zone is maneuvering.
It seems that there is a disguise of real numbers. What kind of business would you like to create in a country with permanent electrical flaws?
Beichuan Destruction: Combine the power shortage with the number of factories that need to be moved now, when fewer enterprises want to rebuild on the active fault line, and the curtain will begin to lift what they are hiding. Workers refuse to return to work until government inspectors sign on the integrity of the buildings, although it may take months or years before they go to each company. The psychology of danger for the worker and the investor is the missing factor X in the Chinese equation. Now, how attractive are regional development zones in western China?
As for us living outside of China, outsourcing heavy industry to China is the norm. Even the global renewable energy sector has many of its wind turbines and solar panels manufactured in China. Unfortunately, Deyang, a city located about one and a half hours north of Chengdu, carried out wind turbine operations, including majors from Europe, Australia and North America, who carried out part of their production at Dong Fang Turbine. In the same area, there were also carbon fiber blades, a wind tower and ball bearings that supplied parts to Dong Fang. The buildings in the vicinity of Deyang to Mianyang were severely damaged or flattened.
Business Week summarizes the article titled "Dongfang Turbine Badly Hit." The operations of Dongfang Turbine, the largest steam turbine manufacturer in China and the third largest domestic wind turbine manufacturer, were virtually destroyed. Dongfang, which produces 30 percent of China’s local turbines, estimates that direct earthquake losses will reach $ 1 billion. His parent company, Dongfang Electric Corp., saw a sharp jump in stock prices, since in 2007 the share of the steam turbine accounted for 20% of its operating revenues.
Although Chinese media reported that business opportunities in the wind turbine were not affected, sources inside the company said that most of their wind power enterprises Unfortunately, the senior engineers died, and one of their wind components was badly damaged.
Triangle of earthquake with electric deficiency: where does this leave us? Peak oil is identical and can no longer be denied. We, as the world, must begin the transition to renewable energy sources, and these circumstances will establish the production of wind power in China in a year or two. The Chinese response to the electric deficit will be to build more coal-fired power plants. Since outsourcing production is currently limited by fault lines and power shortages, what will be our answer?
The earthquake triangle with an electric deficit from Kunming in the west to Chongqing in the east and Lanzhou in the north with Chengdu in the center - all this is fragmentary territory. The central government has sent a new business to this exact area, because there is very little space on the east coast. That is why there is a massive push to send the economy to the west. If you were in coastal China, you saw how densely packed the society was.
Price is the main reason why we buy Chinese goods and have our industries there. However, when something is missing, it costs more. Electricity is no different. Currently, there is a shortage of diesel fuel on the east coast, an electric shortage in the west and along the coast. Add to the recent valuable yuan, and China is no longer a utopia for the business that once was. Until the damage in western China is repaired, an increase in the use of oil, natural gas and coal will largely replace hydropower. This, in turn, creates higher prices in the manufacturing sector of China. You will be paid at the front desk.
Please understand: the rest of the world is much less dependent on China’s exports than China’s, depends on the rest of the world. We need to prepare to take care of ourselves again. As oil prices continue to rise, and the world economy is declining, I believe that we will see a resumption of light industry in our home countries. Electric problems in China can be partially solved if the light industry moves to other areas and leaves the heavy industries in China. In the next few years, unemployment will become more severe as our fossil fuel economy shrinks.
What a great way to get millions of people to work: bring companies back home. This will take one link from the globalization dependency chain and save energy along the way.
